The new forecast by the Institute for Quality Development in the State of Bremen (IQHB) up to 2034 reveals significant changes: Fewer children in primary education, more pupils in secondary education levels I and II.
IQHB delivers new forecast up to the year 2024
The new forecast by the Institute for Quality Development in the State of Bremen (IQHB) up to 2034 reveals significant changes: In the future, there will be fewer children in primary education, but more pupils in secondary education levels I and II.
The figures show that Bremen needs to create capacity in the short term and plan flexibly to avoid bottlenecks in schools. This forecast also forms the basis for school development planning in Bremen.
"Student numbers in Bremen will shift massively by 2034"
Bremen's Senator for Children and Education, Mark Rackles: "Student numbers in Bremen will shift dramatically by 2034. The situation is therefore tense and presents us with a challenge. The forecast makes it clear: without swift, flexible measures, bottlenecks are imminent in the coming years. Targeted investments and rapid decisions are needed now. We have a clear roadmap: through leases, modular buildings, and rapid expansion of existing facilities, we will provide short-term relief. In the medium term, we must build permanent capacity. This is how we will guarantee a school place for every child in Bremen."
Key statements of the forecast
The key findings of the forecast up to 2034 (based on the population forecast of the State Statistical Office from September 2025):
- Primary education: Decline of 3,484 potential pupils (-16 percent) from 21,807 (2025) to 18,323 (2034). Reason: intensified decline in birth rates since 2022.
- Lower secondary education: The number of potential students will increase from 27,824 (2025) by 2,661 (+9.6 percent) by 2034, peaking at 32,010 potential students in 2031 (+15.1 percent compared to 2025). This trend continues from the primary level.
- Upper secondary education: Increase by 780 potential students (+12.9 percent) from 6,046 (2025) to 6,826 (2034).
Regional differences exist in all areas and require solutions tailored to specific districts.
Education Senator Rackles sees two critical windows of opportunity
The Senator for Children and Education sees two critical periods: Until 2028, the decline in primary school enrollment will initially remain small, while the numbers in lower secondary school (grades 5-10) will rise continuously. From 2028 to 2031, the situation will worsen: Due to the declining birth rate, the number of primary school enrollment will fall significantly (by approximately 2,185), while at the same time the number of lower secondary school students will increase sharply.
"The results demand a holistic approach. We must consider parents' right to all-day schooling, issues of inclusion, the need for renovations, and, last but not least, teachers and staffing. We need regionally differentiated concepts to avoid overcapacity and to manage peak demand," commented Education Senator Rackles.
Ongoing projects and urgent needs are reviewed
As a next step, the Children and Education Department will systematically review all ongoing projects and urgent needs based on the new forecast. Building on this, the school development plan (SEP) will be developed using district-specific IQHB data.
An interim report is expected in the spring. This will be followed by a participatory process involving all relevant stakeholders. After political approval, the SEP is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026.
Source: Press Office of the Senate of the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen, Senator for Children and Education, Press Release , February 24, 2026